The global investment landscape has shifted markedly in recent decades. The U.S. is no longer the center of the economic and financial universe. It still has the world’s largest economy and stock market, but foreign economies and markets have become much more relevant to investors. Proper diversification today means a global investment strategy and a global portfolio. The economic trends outside of the United States are simply too large and too profound to ignore. The Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan are flooding the global monetary system with liquidity in a futile attempt to stimulate growth. What happens when the current round of money printing ends in the fall?
We aren’t forecasting a bear market, but the risk should not be ignored. Savvy investors prepare for the worst and hope for the best. How do you prepare for the prospect of a bear market? Our advised strategy for you is to be sure you have a balanced portfolio and favor dividend payers, which tend to fall less in bear markets than non-dividend payers, and stocks that are out of favor. This month, we have two new recommendations that can help you prepare for the worst. More >>
The speculative reach for return has become even more pervasive in the market. Even with the modest YTD gains in the broader stock market indices, U.S. equities remain deep in a bubble phase. At current valuations, U.S. stocks are priced to deliver medium-term returns of about 3.5% per year. The implication for your retirement savings plan is that in a lower prospective return environment you must boost your savings rate. And not just by a little, but by a lot, as I'll demonstrate.
But while the Fed's profligate monetary accommodation has driven prospective returns into the tank, there is one country whose money printing campaign is even bigger relative to its economy. And this month, we're recommending you short its currency. Meanwhile, a cornerstone of our strategy to navigate the bubble environment in the U.S. financial markets has been to focus on dividend payers and companies that were out of favor. With the steady drift higher in global equity markets, out-of-favor stocks remain few and far between. One industry that remains deeply out of favor that isn't yet represented on the Global Investment Strategy Master List is coal. This month, we're recommending a starter position in one of the largest U.S. coal producers. More >>
July 29, 2014
For my money the best balanced fund combination is a 50/50 mix of Vanguard Wellesley and Wellington. For clients I prefer a mix of Young Research’s retirement compounder stocks and individual bonds and bond funds. The key difference from the Wellesley and Wellington mix is our stocks provide an eclectic group of international holdings and […]More »
The Young Research Commodities chart book includes price, both real and nominal, for different time periods and annual rates of change for the commodities covered on the Global Investment Scorecard.
The Young Research Equities chart book includes a range of charts featuring indicators on stock market valuation, sentiment, relative strength, etc. for U.S. stocks over a variety of timescales.
The Young Research U.S. Economy chart book includes short and long-term charts on output and activity, the labor market, inflation, and consumer and business sentiment.
Since 1896, the average bull market has lasted 835 days and resulted in a doubling of stock prices. For more historical perspective on the duration and magnitude of bull and bear markets, check out our new Dow Bull and Bear Markets table.
Our Credit Markets chart book includes many of the charts we monitor and use regularly to formulate fixed-income investment strategy. The chart book includes long-term charts on nominal and inflation-adjusted treasury rates, policy rates, interest rate valuation indicators, and credit spreads.
Jeremy Jones, CFA, is the director of research for Young Research & Publishing and editor of the Global Investment Strategy newsletter. Jeremy is also the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., an investment advisor to high net-worth families and businesses. More »