We are seeing an alarming level of complacency among both individual and professional investors. Bullish sentiment is at euphoric levels, bearish analysts are once again being ridiculed in the financial media, and investors who have little ability to incur substantial losses are taking on great risk in pursuit of higher returns. Complacency rears its ugly head in the later stages of almost every investment mania, and it is a dangerous foe that can sabotage portfolio performance, or worse, shatter a thoughtfully executed retirement plan. To achieve long-term investment success, you must battle complacency ruthlessly. Those investors who do not will pay the price.
In this month's issue, we'll explain the risks that years of zero rates and untold trillions in misallocated capital have led to and how you can protect yourself from them. As we have outlined in prior issues of Global Investment Strategy, we see more compelling opportunities in foreign markets than we do in the U.S. The basket of seven foreign stocks that we advised as top buys in the January issue are up an average 10% since the issue was released. All remain buys now. In addition, to give you more direct exposure to euro-area equities, we are adding three funds to the Equities Master List. With the significant appreciation of the euro over recent months, we also want you to close your short position in the euro for now. Improvement in the euro-area economy also likely means improvement in demand for platinum, which you can buy via the platinum fund on our Commodities Master List. Finally, we want you to round out your position in one of our commodity stocks. More >>
One month into the year, and the dominant theme of 2015 is shaping up to be the race to debase. The global currency wars that escalated last fall intensified greatly in January. The European Central Bank kicked things off by making their widely anticipated quantitative easing program official, firing up their printing presses until at least September 2016 to the tune of 60 billion euros per month to buy mostly government bonds. The euro-area's official QE announcement opened the flood gates to competitive currency devaluations. Since the year began there have been at least five other major central banks that have voted for policies that weaken their currencies.
The upshot of the trend toward competitive devaluations is that currencies that were once far out of alignment with any reasonable estimate of fair value are now coming back down to earth. The Nordic currencies have corrected meaningfully versus the USD. Norwegian shares have appeal here. Our new recommendation is one of the best companies in Norway, offering a generous yield, a secular growth tailwind, and long-term currency upside. This company is a leader in both the stable, developed Nordics and in some of the world's most appealing emerging markets. More >>
March 27, 2015 Young Research's Moving the Goods Index is sending a signal of caution on the economy. Our Moving the Goods Index is a modified market-capitalization weighted index of non-airline transportation companies. Transportation stocks are often a leading indicator of economic momentum. The chart below shows that our Moving the Goods Index is rolling over relative to […] More »
The Young Research Commodities chart book includes price, both real and nominal, for different time periods and annual rates of change for the commodities covered on the Global Investment Scorecard.
The Young Research Equities chart book includes a range of charts featuring indicators on stock market valuation, sentiment, relative strength, etc. for U.S. stocks over a variety of timescales.
The Young Research U.S. Economy chart book includes short and long-term charts on output and activity, the labor market, inflation, and consumer and business sentiment.
Since 1896, the average bull market has lasted 835 days and resulted in a doubling of stock prices. For more historical perspective on the duration and magnitude of bull and bear markets, check out our new Dow Bull and Bear Markets table.
Our Credit Markets chart book includes many of the charts we monitor and use regularly to formulate fixed-income investment strategy. The chart book includes long-term charts on nominal and inflation-adjusted treasury rates, policy rates, interest rate valuation indicators, and credit spreads.
Jeremy Jones, CFA, is the director of research for Young Research & Publishing and editor of the Global Investment Strategy newsletter. Jeremy is also the Chief Investment Officer at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., an investment advisor to high net-worth families and businesses. More »